Lest We Forget
Here’s the current situation in the Russia-Ukraine war (as of early July 2026):
Major Russian Strike on Kyiv (July 1–2)
Russia launched one of its largest and deadliest attacks on the Ukrainian capital in months during the night of July 1–2. Ukrainian officials reported around 570 drones and missiles launched (mostly Shahed-type strike drones, plus ballistic and cruise missiles). Ukrainian air defenses intercepted the majority, but some ballistic missiles and drones penetrated, striking over 20 locations in Kyiv.
• Casualties: At least 27–30 killed and 90+ injured in Kyiv alone (figures vary slightly by source). Additional deaths reported in other regions (e.g., Kharkiv Oblast).
• Targets included residential buildings, an ambulance station, a scientific institute, a hotel, and a humanitarian warehouse (significant damage to aid supplies reported by the Red Cross).
• Kyiv observed a day of mourning on July 3, with rescuers still searching rubble.
This attack came as Ukraine has escalated its own deep strikes into Russia.
Ukrainian Strikes on Russia
Ukraine continues an active long-range drone and missile campaign targeting Russian energy infrastructure (oil refineries), logistics, and military sites deep inside Russia. Recent strikes hit facilities like the AVT-6 oil refining unit in Kstovo (Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, ~780 km from the border), causing fires.
These strikes have contributed to fuel shortages in parts of Russia and growing civilian frustration. Ukraine has framed these as “long-range sanctions” to pressure Moscow economically and logistically.
Frontline Situation
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessment for July 2, 2026:
• No confirmed territorial advances by either side on July 2.
• Russia continues slow, grinding offensive operations, particularly around Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast (part of Ukraine’s “fortress belt”). Russian forces have infiltrated or advanced into portions of the city but face high costs for limited tactical gains.
• Russia’s broader spring-summer 2026 offensive has not achieved operationally significant breakthroughs. Its rate of advance in June 2026 was a small fraction of what it achieved in June 2025.
The front remains largely static overall, with Russia making incremental gains in the Donbas at enormous human and material cost, while Ukraine focuses on deep strikes and defensive operations.
Casualty Context
A recent CSIS study (early July 2026) estimates total casualties (killed + wounded) in the war since February 2022 have surpassed 2 million:
• Russia: ~1.4 million casualties (including ~400,000–450,000 killed).
• Ukraine: ~525,000–625,000 casualties (including ~125,000–150,000 killed).
Ukrainian General Staff daily reports continue to claim high Russian losses (often 1,000+ per day in recent periods).
Overall Picture
The war remains a high-intensity war of attrition. Ukraine is successfully bringing the conflict home to Russia through long-range strikes on energy and military targets, while Russia responds with heavy strikes on Ukrainian cities (especially Kyiv) and slow advances in the east. There are occasional hints from Russian officials about openness to talks, but no meaningful diplomatic breakthrough appears imminent.
For the most detailed daily military analysis, check the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports. Visual frontline maps are available from ISW and Ukrainian OSINT sources like DeepStateMAP.